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Bitcoin traders are reducing their risk exposure as Donald Trump’s winning odds slide for the upcoming US election.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price fell today as the market’s attention turned to the drop in Donald Trump’s winning odds in the upcoming United States presidential elections.
Trump bets keep Bitcoin away from new highs
Bitcoin has dropped by over 6.50% three days after hitting $73,600—its second-highest level in 2024—to reach around $69,200 on Nov. 1. That includes a 4.65% drop in the last 24 hours.
The cryptocurrency’s decline aligns with a shrinking lead for Trump over Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris on prediction markets like PredictIt, Polymarket, and Kalshi, where users wager on election outcomes.
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris election winning odds. Source: Polymarket
Bitcoin has been widely considered a “Trump hedge” due to the former president’s strong support for the crypto sector, which has invested heavily in advocating its interests throughout his campaign.
Earlier in the week, when Trump held a more substantial lead against Harris, Bitcoin approached March’s all-time high of $73,794 (data from Bitstamp), coming within just $194 of the peak.
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
“Derisking into the election 5-6 days before it takes place happened in both 2020 and 2016,” noted market analyst HornHairs, adding:
“Price then went on to never retest the lows set the week before the election ever again.”
BTC price is retreating from overbought areas
Bitcoin’s price decline today is part of an overbought correction.
The cryptocurrency has been declining since its daily relative strength index (RSI) crossed above 70—an overbought area—on Oct. 29.
That doesn’t necessarily mean a reversal is imminent, but it indicates that the rally was likely overheated.
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s drop has returned its price inside its prevailing ascending channel range, which resembles a rising wedge.
A rising wedge is typically a bearish pattern, where the price moves upward within converging trendlines, indicating that buying momentum may be weakening. In this case, Bitcoin’s price has slipped below the wedge’s upper trendline, now facing potential declines toward the lower trendline at around $68,000.
Related: Bitcoin speculators send $4B to exchanges as BTC price loses $70K
BTC price will enter a breakdown stage if it breaks below the lower trendline. Per a technical rule, a wedge’s breakdown target is measured by adding the wedge’s height to the breakdown point.
In other words, Bitcoin price can still see a correction to the $55,500-58,000 area in the final two months of this year.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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