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Bitcoin struggles to reclaim $70,000 ahead of the US election, but analysts agree that volatility will be present before and after the election result is announced.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price witnessed a sharp 8% correction between Oct. 29 and Nov. 3 and briefly dropped to $67,446 over the weekend. While the higher time frame (HTF) market structure remains bullish for BTC, the market expects a volatile trading session heading into the US presidential election results on Nov. 5.
Bitcoin’s current uptrend can be traced back to the lows formed at $52,510 on Sept. 6. Since then, each BTC correction during its higher high (HH) and higher low (HL) structure has retested the Fibonacci “golden zone” between 0.5 and 0.618.
The chart below shows Bitcoin exhibiting similar behavior, with prices closing above the 0.618 level over the weekend. A daily close above $68,500 over the next 48 hours would complete the lower time frame (LTF) bullish structure, with BTC immediately recovering above the $70,000 psychological level.
Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
Cold Blooder Shiller, an anonymous trader on X, conveyed a similar bullish projection, stating that the $69,200 level is “really important to claim back on the LTF.” The trader added,
“You can make a very strong case for holding above $69,000 on the daily as a good retest and sign of strength.”
Will a V-shaped reversal happen at $66,000?
Considering that Bitcoin lost the $68,500 level on the daily chart, the next area of interest is around $65,000-$66,000. Skew, an onchain analyst, pointed out that the Bitcoin market witnessed “persistent demand” around $65,000-$66,000 during its recent bullish rally, which pushed prices above $70,000 at the end of October.
Bitcoin Binance spot buys analysis by Skew. Source: X.com
During the rally, a market shift was observed between $66,000 and $67,000 on Binance, where spot buys pushed BTC’s value beyond the $69,000 mark. Hence, a clear area of liquidity and order book depth was established. Thus, this area remains a clear zone for future market bids.
As observed in the chart, the $66,000-$67,000 range acted as a key resistance level a couple of times before it was breached, and then, it supported BTC prices before its recent highs at $73,660.
Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
Therefore, this key area could support Bitcoin for a potential V-pattern reversal after the commencement of US election results.
Related: Bitcoin analyst sees $66K ‘local bottom’ as BTC price liquidates $200M
Bitcoin traders are at risk of liquidation
Irrespective of the election results, multiple crypto proponents believed that the long-term trajectory is “up only” for Bitcoin. Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Fund, indicated that the current BTC ETF trend clearly suggests that the market does not care who will be the US president in the long term.
Cobie, a popular crypto trader, shared in this view.
Source: X.com
However, in light of a surprise Harris victory, Bitcoin could exhibit short-term price declines if traders choose to de-leverage long positions and remain sidelined for a few weeks until the market volatility cools down.
In such a scenario, a re-test to $62,000 is possible since over $300 million in leverage positions are around this price.
Bitcoin liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass
An order block can also be observed around $62,000, and a price drop to that level could lead to a collective retest of the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMA levels on the daily chart.
Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
Related: US election vs. Fed rate cut — 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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